Risk Management Software
DNV PHAST Professional
OBJECTIVE DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
Safeguarding life, property and the environment
International Network and Staff DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
Europe 2800
Americas 550 Asia 400 Africa & Arabia 75 Australasia 75
Risk Assesment Software
DNV Pro
DNV-Pro
SAFETI PHAST
PHAST
SAFETI
DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
Commonly Used Definition of RISK DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
The likelihood of a specified undesired event occurring within a specified period or under specified circumstances
Risk Management DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
1. Identify Hazards 2. Postulate Accidents
3. Evaluate Consequences
Options to Mitigate Consequences
No
4. Estimate Frequencies
5. Risk Summation
Risks Controlled? Yes Optimise Options to Manage Risks
Options to Decrease Frequencies
No
DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
Hazard Identification DNV-Pro
Event Frequency RiskSpectrum ETRA LEAK VEREDA WOAD OREDA
Consequence Modelling PHAST QRA SAFETI NEPTUNE
Identification of Hazards DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
Perform technique for identifying Hazards - “Process Hazard Analysis” • • • • • •
Hazard and Operability Studies (HAZOPS) Checklists “What-If” Analysis Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) Safety Audits Historical Record
All recorded with DNV-Pro for ease of producing actions and recommendations
Identification of Hazards - II DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
DNV-Pro provides: • • • • •
Templates for HAZOP and other PHA recording Suggested Guidewords and Deviations Fully User Customised Can import many different types of study formats Numbering and Assignation of Recommendations
DNV-Pro is a consistent and reliable aid to saving time and improving the quality of Hazard Identification
Evaluation of Consequences DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
We need to assess any possible Flammable, Explosive or Toxic Effects from releases of Liquids and/or Vapours. DISCHARGE TERMS
GAS DISPERSION / POOLS
FLAMMABLE & TOXIC EFFECTS
Evaluation of Consequences - II DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
PHAST gives us the ability to look at the following aspects of various types of accidental releases of a hazardous material • Mass release rate of material • Liquid pools that are formed and evaporate • Gas dispersion under four different air entrainment regimes • Fire effects (Jet fires, pool fires, flash fires, BLEVEs)
Evaluation of Consequences - III DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
•Explosion •Toxic
Effects (Confined and Unconfined)
Effects (Probits, ERPG Levels, IDLH Levels)
•Modelling
for different weather conditions
•Graphical
display of results on maps
Estimation of Frequencies DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
Can use historical failure rate data and modify if necessary to account for a specific plant. Failure Frequency Data Sources: • • • • • •
Published Works (Lees, CCPS) OREDA WOAD Electrical/Nuclear DNV Your Organisation!
Estimation of Frequencies - II DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
Modification of Generic failure rate data can involve: • Factoring individual failure causes e.g. corrosion, external impact • Allowing for socio-economic effects • Fault Tree Analysis • Management Systems Audit
SAFETI - Risk Summation DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
Software for the Assessment of Flammable, Explosive and Toxic Impact
SAFETI combines the Consequences (How Big?) and Frequencies (How Often?) of the Hazards to determine the Risk. SAFETI also takes into account: • Distribution and vulnerability of local population • Meteorological data (wind speed/direction/stability) • Location of any ignition sources
Impact Calculations DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
CONTAINMENT VESSEL
Impact Calculations - II DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
DISCHARGE
Impact Calculations - III DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
DISPERSION
Impact Calculations - IV DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
NIGHT TIME
Impact Calculations - V DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
IGNITION
Impact Calculations - VI DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
• Wind Direction • Speed / Stability Categories
• Day / Night • Time dependent ignition •Various risk indices •Every case modelled
SAFETI - Risk Summation DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
Output from SAFETI is in the form of • Contours of Individual Risk • Societal Risk Curves • Ranking of Risk from each Failure Scenario
Risk Contour Plot DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
Upper Heathcote Persil Township
Lower Heathcote Mooring System
FERTILIZER FACTORY
10
-6
10 -7
10 -8
Whitnash Selsey
BAY OF BOSHAM
Framework for Risk Criteria DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
HIGH RISK
Maximum Tolerable Criterion
INTOLERABLE
TOLERABLE IF ALARP (as low as Reasonably Practicable)
LOW RISK
Desirable Target NEGLIGIBLE
Cost Benefit Analysis DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
The use of a measure of loss (life, production, asset loss or environmental damage) to measure the benefit of various available options. Helps to use investment effectively and efficiently. It can also save money by stopping over-protection of some items.
Risk Reduction and Cost Benefit DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
3.00E-03
80 70
2.50E-03
60 2.00E-03
50 40
1.50E-03
30 1.00E-03
20 10
5.00E-04
0 0.00E+00
-10 Base case +Opt. A
A+B
AB+C
Average Individual Risk
ABC +D
ABC D+E
ABC DE+F
Cost (US$000,000)
Risk Analysis Tools DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
• Complex risk analyses require undertaking a large number of calculations and the efficient handling of large amounts of information • Can not be done manually • Assistance of suitable software packages is essential
DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
The Project QRA SCOPE
HAZARD IDENTIFICATION PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT
CONSEQUENCE ASSESSMENT
RISK PROFILE RISK COMMUNICATION
DECISION MAKING
CALCULATION EFFORT REQUIRED
The Project
DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
ANALYST’S EFFORT
QRA SCOPE
HAZARD IDENTIFICATION PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT
CONSEQUENCE ASSESSMENT
RISK PROFILE RISK COMMUNICATION
DECISION MAKING
Software allows more time for decision making and defining the scope
DNV Risk Management Software DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
• Robust Commercial Software • Support and Training • Modelling that is well validated and uses leading technology • Global user community driving product development and direction
Consequence Analysis
What is Consequence Analysis? DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
Estimate of effects for chemical release: Accidental Designed
Consequence Analysis DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
Emphasis is placed on the following aspects of various types of releases of a hazardous material • • • •
Mass release rate of material Gas dispersion Liquid pools that are formed and evaporate Fire and Toxic effects
Consequence Analysis Development DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
Possible Flammable, Explosive and Toxic Effects from releases of Liquids and/or Vapors are explored following the scheme: Discharge Calculations Dispersion Calculations Flammable/Toxic Effects Calculations
Discharge Determines DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
• • • • •
Release Rate Phase of the Release Liquid Fraction Temperature Duration
WIND
Vapor
Liquid Jet Vapor Vapor Liquid Liquid Jet
Liquid Jet
Source Term Models used by PHAST DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
Instantaneous or catastrophic release
Line release
Vessel
Vessel
Orifice leak Vessel
Released material
Released material Pipe
Orifice Released material
Rupture point
Consequence Analysis Development DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
Possible Flammable, Explosive and Toxic Effects from releases of Liquids and/or Vapors are explored following the scheme: Discharge Calculations Dispersion Calculations Flammable/Toxic Effects Calculations
Pipe and Orifice Model: Atmospheric Expansion & Rain-out DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
Flash
Vapour
Small droplets remain suspended
Liquid
Large droplets rain out Liquid pool
Dispersion DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
Needs: Discharge Results Weather Data
Types of Clouds: Instantaneous Continuous Short Duration
Cloud Formation DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
• • • •
Initial Turbulent Expanding Jet Dense Spreading and Turbulent Mixing Slumping Dense Cloud Passive/Gaussian
Initial Turbulent Expanding Jet DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
• • •
Continuous releases have a direction Instantaneous releases occur in all directions Rapid expansion Rapid decrease of concentration
Dense Spreading and Turbulent Mixing DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
• • • • •
Energy left Cloud expanding Cloud touches down High degree of mixing Cloud moving faster than the wind
Slumping Dense Cloud DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
• • •
Lost energy Slumping and spreading Lower mixing rate
Passive / Gaussian DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
• • •
Lost ALL initial energy Mixing due to turbulence Wind speed
UDM Dispersion Phases DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
circular cross-section
z
truncated cross-section semi-elliptic
cross-section
x
y
• •
ELEVATED PLUME
TOUCHING DOWN
GROUND-LEVEL PLUME
elevation phases: elevated, touching down, ground-level, lift-off, elevated, mixing layer dispersion phases: jet, heavy, passive
Short Duration Continuous Releases DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
(a) Release just begun
(b) Release ends
(c) Cloud moves away from the release point
(d) At this point the release is quasiinstantaneous
(e) Replaced with equivalent circular instantaneous cloud
(f) The circular cloud moves away
Consequence Analysis Development DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
Possible Flammable, Explosive and Toxic Effects from releases of Liquids and/or Vapors are explored following the scheme: Discharge Calculations Dispersion Calculations Flammable/Toxic Effects Calculations
Flammable and Toxic Effects DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
• • • • • •
Flash Fires Vapor Cloud Explosion BLEVE Pool Fire Jet Fire Probits
Testing and Verification DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
• Test models prior to integration • Model verification: ý sensitivity
studies
• Model validation against experiments: ý New,
systematic re-validation for models which have substantially changed
Validation Against Large Scale Experiments DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
• passive dispersion (Prairie Grass) • elevated two-phase jet (EC - propane, Desert Tortoise - ammonia) • elevated HF jet (Goldfish) • instantaneous (Thorney Island) • pool evaporation - LNG (Maplin Sands, Burro) ý to
further improve link pool/dispersion model
Validation against Prairie Grass 8 - concentration DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
Prairie Grass 8 - Elevate d re le ase of Sulfur Dioxide
concentration (mol %)
100 10 1 0.1
c e nt re - line a t z =0
0.01
e xpe rime nt a l da t a
0.001 0.0001 0.00001 1
10
100
1000
downwind distance (m)
10000
Validation against Thorney Island 8 - concentration DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
Thorne y Island 8 - Instantane ous re le ase of Nitroge n and Fre on
concentration (mol %)
100 10 1 0.1
c e nt re -line a t z =0.4
0.01
e xpe r ime nt a l da t a
0.001 0.0001 0.00001 1
10
100
1000
downwind distance (m)
10000
Benefits of Consequence Analysis DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
• Lower Liability • Preventing/Minimizing Damage • Regulatory Compliance
More Benefits of Consequence Analysis DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
• Environmental Awareness • Quantitative Risk Analysis • Added Benefit of Decrease in Downtime
DNV Risk Management Software
PHAST - Past, Present and Future
PHAST DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
• • • • •
2004-09-16
Process Hazard Analysis Software Tools
Past - 10 Years Ago DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
• PHAST started as a development project by Technica for Rohm and Haas • It was based on the models and code from SAFETI but developed for the PC • The commercial launch was version 2 in June 1989 in Oslo.
2004-09-16
Present - 10 years of Progress DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
• • • • •
600 Users 250,000 lines of code 200 C++ classes 50 Modelling modules New capabilities… … .. ý ý ý ý
Graphics, maps Standalone models Time dependency Unified Dispersion Model...
2004-09-16
The Future DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
• • • • • • • •
Continuous Improvement in Consequence Modelling Integration of PHAST models in other business applications Enhanced Functionality through DNV Software group Links to GIS Links to CAD Systems Web Integration Links to ERP systems ???? You tell us
2004-09-16
DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
V
n o i is 386
NT
11 Releases Of PHAST
486
Pentium
UNIX
Te n ch
Windows 3
og ol y
2004-09-16
Cu sto me rs
Regul DOS ation
Conclusion DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
• • • • •
First 10 years has seen many developments PHAST continues to be the leading commercial tool We are preparing the release of the 11th version of PHAST This version uses state-of-the-art software technology DNV’s strategy allows more cost effective maintenance and development of software • There are many improvements we can make • Users are key in keeping PHAST a success
2004-09-16
PHAST Overview
Process Hazard Analysis Software Tool DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
• Complete software package for consequence analysis • Capability of modeling catastrophic releases, leaks, line ruptures, relief valves, disk ruptures and vents from vapor space
Program Structure DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
• • • • •
32 Bit Version Only PSU file is created Windows naming convention Can be run on NT by nonAdministrators Software & hardware security
Installation DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
•
Three types of installations: ýStand
alone installation ýNetwork installation sharing Administrative files only ýNetwork installation sharing all common files
Modularization DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
• Test models prior to integration • Model verification ý
Sensitivity studies
• Model validation against experiments ý
New, systematic re-validation for models which have substantially changed
More about PHAST... DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
• • •
User friendly Interface Graphical & animated results Tabular results
New Structure DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
•
Study Tree ýStudy
Folder
ýStudy ýFolders ýModels
Case Lists DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
• • • •
Allows for sensitivity studies Can modify one or more variables at a time Can visualize all variations on the same graph Reports display all variations
Case Definition DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
• • • • • •
Saturated Ethylene 10 000 Kg 2.068 bar 40 mm orifice 5 m below liquid level Outdoors vessel
Weather Data DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
• • •
1.5 m/s - D stability 5 m/s - D stability 1.5 m/s - F stability
Explosion Models DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
Calculations can be performed after all appropriate data has been provided
Reports DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
• Selection of reports to be displayed • Selection of Dispersion Report fields • Reports can be exported directly into MS Word • Reports can be generated for materials as well as parameters
Graphics DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
•
All applicable graphs are displayed
•
Dynamic view of some graphs is available
•
Footprint height can be modified
•
Multiple cases or weathers can be viewed at once for all plots
Graphics #2 DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
Conclusion DNV RISK MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE
•
Substantial modularization and restructuring work for all models in PHAST 6.0
•
New structure and characteristics allows more flexibility
•
Component architecture opens new possibilities ýBetter
model quality control ýEasier and more efficient updates ýModel version control ýBetter support of individual models
Risk Management Software
DNV Software Presentation